As the final lap of the presidential election campaign comes to its close at midnight on Wednesday, there is no certainty about the outcome. The only certainty is that it will be one of three candidates—incumbent president Ranil Wickremesinghe, opposition leader Sajith Premadasa or NPP leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake. The other 35 candidates including the young scion of the Rajapaksa family and candidate of the SLPP are at best “also-rans.” But even they are hopeful. There appears to be a substantial number of voters who are undecided, and their hope is that those votes will come their way. Indeed, the principle of the “echo chamber” is working to the fullest extent at this election.
The “echo chamber” principle in social media refers to the phenomenon where users are primarily exposed to opinions and information that reinforce their existing beliefs, due to algorithms and user interactions. This limits exposure to diverse viewpoints, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of like-minded content. In other words, those who favour one candidate above the others tend to meet and discuss the prospects of the candidates with likeminded people which leads them to the belief that their preferred candidate is going to be the winner. The difficulty in ascertaining the validity of these beliefs is compounded by the fact that Sri Lanka does not have reliable public opinion polling agencies. Even in countries with reputed polling agencies, the predicted results have often been at variance with the final outcome.
These presidential elections are different from any in the past as they are not between just two main candidates representing the two largest mainstream political parties but between three who are running neck to neck. These elections are unique in that a political party that obtained no more than three to six percent of the vote at previous elections has suddenly achieved a position among the front runners, if not being the front runner. This reflects the disintegration of the main political parties in the face of their failure to deliver results to their supporters and to the country at large. The disenchantment of voters with the mainstream political parties and intention of voting for an alternative also reflects the willingness of the people at large to reform themselves.
Lost Opportunities
At its independence in 1948, Sri Lanka was referred to as the Switzerland of the East. As late as the 1960s its economy and general standard of living was on par with countries such as Singapore and South Korea. Today, they are at an incomparable level of prosperity and development compared to Sri Lanka. Countries like Vietnam which in the 1980s were far behind Sri Lanka have now gone ahead in terms of their incomes and standard of living with large scale foreign investment and infrastructure development. In 2022 after the economic crisis, Vietnam’s per capita income was USD 4164 compared to USD 3354 of Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka’s current per capita income is no different from what it was 10 years ago while prices have doubled or trebled.
The economic collapse that the country experienced in 2022, and the Aragalaya protest movement that followed, have everything to do with the NPP’s dramatic rise. The economic collapse has come to represent the failure of the mainstream political parties to develop the country’s economy and protect it from economic bankruptcy. During the Aragalaya protests the main slogan of “system change” was buttressed by the demands for an end to corruption and for accountability for economic crimes. One of the most important motivations of voters at this election will be to ensure that the corruption is brought to an end. They will wait to see if retribution follows those who engaged in pillage of the country’s wealth, or whether, at least, the new leaders eschew such practices and show zero tolerance for it.
At the root of Sri Lanka’s regression has been its long term failure to balance expenditures with its earnings. The nature of electoral competition propelled political parties to promise more in terms of economic benefits to the people than the country could afford. The promise to bring rice from the moon was based on the assumption that loans could be obtained from abroad to feed the people. Employment was provided by the state for the unemployed and many subsidies were given to uneconomic ventures. For a time, the Sri Lankan people enjoyed a high physical quality of life that exceeded many other countries with higher per capita incomes. But this was not sustainable and in 2022 the consequences of spending beyond earnings became manifest.
Work Together
Aggravating the problem of government over-spending has been the increasingly unbridled corruption which in too many instances has become the primary cause for overspending. The call for “system change” during the period of the Aragalaya has continued with the general population understanding the connection between the country’s financial bankruptcy and the consequences of the looting of the economy by the ruling politicians and their accomplices in business. Today, corruption has got so enmeshed in the system that even the general public have become complicit in it. The willingness of an increased proportion of people to vote for the NPP, which is most distant from the mainstream politics of the past, is a sign of rejection of this corruption which has enmeshed society.
At its independence Sri Lanka was also referred to as the “Switzerland of the East” on account of the hope that its political leaders would be able govern the multi-ethnic and multi-religious population in a manner that unified rather than divided the polity. But what happened was different, and in the decades that followed the country was driven into ethno-religious conflict that spiraled into terrorism and war that consumed both human lives and economic resources in a monstrous manner. This has deterred the foreign investment that could have taken Sri Lanka on the path to development like in Singapore, South Korea and Vietnam. At the coming presidential election, the choice of the people needs to be the person who is able and willing to take the decisions to overcome these failures of the past.
The three leading presidential candidates are each exceptional leaders in their different ways with the capacity to give leadership to take the country in a new direction. They each have, in their own ways, legacies of corruption and violence to overcome including among those who may surround them. They need to show commitment to work across political, ethnic, class and other divides to unify the country to overcome its three key challenges. They need to bridge the mismatch between national earnings and spending so that loans are taken not for consumption purposes but only for rational investment purposes. Second, to address the problem of corruption without getting mired in it. Third, to be able to resolve the ethno-religious conflicts in a manner that heals the wounds of the past and gives space to all communities, like in Switzerland.
